UAE Tour Men's 2025 Preview 🇦🇪
Tadej Pogačar begins his 2025 campaign, and we have a who's who of the world's best sprinters heading to the UAE this week.
The 7th edition of the UAE Tour kicks off on February 17th and concludes on February 23rd. In September 2018, the Dubai Tour and the Abu Dhabi Tour merged, resulting in the UAE Tour becoming a longer race using stages from both events. It is the second fixture on the UCI WorldTour calendar after the Santos Tour Down Under, which took place at the end of January.
The race route consists of seven stages. It remains consistent, with two unipuerto stages atop Jebel Jais and Jebel Hafeet, a time trial, and the rest being destined for a sprint finish. A key feature of the UAE Tour over the years has been the wind. Due to the nature of the environment and vastly barren roads, the race is has plenty of sections where the riders are exposed to the wind and this impacts the race.
Consequently, the UAE Tour has tended to attract the best sprinters to the race, as there are many opportunities for the fast men to shine. However, the man that has been stealing all of the headlines ahead of this year’s race is the world champion, Tadej Pogačar. The Slovenian returns to the race, as a two-time winner (2021-2022), for the first time since his last victory back in 2022. A lot has changed since Pogačar raced in the UAE Tour, as the Slovenian has since added 55 victories to his palmares in that time, including the Tour de France, Giro d’Italia, five monuments and the World Championships, to name a few…
2024 Edition
General Classification
Lennert Van Eetvelt 🇧🇪 - Lotto Dstny
Ben O’Connor 🇦🇺 - Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale
Pello Bilbao 🇪🇸 - Bahrain - Victorious
Stages
Tim Merlier 🇧🇪 - Soudal Quick-Step
Brandon McNulty 🇺🇸 - UAE Team Emirates
Ben O’Connor 🇦🇺 - Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale
Tim Merlier 🇧🇪 - Soudal Quick-Step
Olav Kooij 🇳🇱 - Team Visma | Lease a Bike
Tim Merlier 🇧🇪 - Soudal Quick-Step
Lennert Van Eetvelt 🇧🇪 - Lotto Dstny
Race Schedule
Stage 1 | Madinat Zayed Shams Solar Park - Liwa Palace (138km) | Monday 17 February
Stage 2 (ITT) | Al Hudayriyat Island - Al Hudaryiyat Island (12.2km) | Tuesday 18 February
Stage 3 | Ras al Khaimah - Jebel Jais (179km) | Wednesday 19 February
Stage 4 | Fujairah Qidfa Beach - Umm al Quwain (181km) | Thursday 20 February
Stage 5 | American University Dubai - Hamdan Bin Mohammed Smart University (160km) | Friday 21 February
Stage 6 | Abu Dhabi Cycling Club - Abu Dhabi Breakwater (167km) | Saturday 22 February
Stage 7 | Al Ain Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium - Jebel Hafeet (176km) | Sunday 23 February
Competitors
GC
Tadej Pogačar 🇸🇮
Before a pedal is even turned, it feels inevitable that Tadej Pogačar will win the UAE Tour for the 3rd time in his career. This race marks the start of the world champion’s 2025 season, and he is currently on a four-race winning streak from the back-end of 2024.
Of course, it is important to stress that Pogačar still needs to deliver a winning performance, as anything can happen in cycling, however, it seems very hard to see anything past a typically impressive Tadej Pogačar performance in the UAE this week. UAE Team Emirates line-up for this race is rouleur-heavy, suggesting that their main concern for Pogačar in this race will be navigating the wind on the flat stages. In the climbing department, Pogačar has Jay Vine, Domen Novak and even Mikkel Bjerg to call upon.
The Other GC Contenders
Here are some riders from each team who could be competitive in a GC capacity. It’s quite a long list, as I’ve included at least one rider from as many teams as I thought fair, so bear with me. The riders highlighted in bold are more likely, in my opinion, to be in contention for the podium.
Stage 1 could turn out to be influential on the GC depending on how it is raced, meaning that those riding for GC need to be careful not to get caught out. The time trial on stage two will put the riders who are weak in this discipline on the back foot. The time gaps on stage three’s summit finish shouldn’t be enormous either, meaning that the battle for the podium will come down to the final stage. As is the case every year at the UAE Tour, the wind could play a pivotal role in the GC outcome, therefore team strength is important, to keep GC leaders at the front of the race.
Lennert Van Eetvelt - Lotto
Pello Bilbao / Rainer Kepplinger / Max van der Meulen - Bahrain - Victorious
Felix Gall / Paul Seixas - Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale Team
Sean Quinn / Esteban Chaves - EF Education EasyPost
Carlos Rodríguez / Victor Langellotti - INEOS Grenadiers
Matthew Riccitello / Jan Hirt / Alexey Lutsenko - Israel - Premier Tech
Giulio Ciccone / Patrick Konrad - Lidl - Trek
Einer Rubio / Iván Romeo / Pablo Castrillo / Will Barta - Movistar Team
Finn Fisher-Black / Giulio Pellizzari / Ben Zwiehoff - Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe
Junior Lecerf - Soudal Quick-Step
Luke Plapp / Chris Harper - Team Jayco AlUla
Oscar Onley - Team Picnic PostNL
Jay Vine / Mikkel Bjerg - UAE Team Emirates - XRG
Michael Storer - Tudor Pro Cycling Team
Bart Lemmen / Thomas Gloag - Team Visma | Lease a Bike
Sergio Higuita / Harold Tejada - XDS Astana Team
Sprinters
As with every edition of the UAE Tour, it’s a who’s who of the very best sprinters in the world. Four riders stand out in particular, but there are many more who could cause a minor upset on one of the 3/4 sprint stages in this year’s race.
Jonathan Milan 🇮🇹 - Lidl - Trek
UAE Tour Stage Wins: 0
2025 Results: 2x stage win | Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana
The Italian Stallion is one of the most exciting entities in the world of sprinting right now. Already a four-time Giro d’Italia stage winner, 2025 is the year where Jonathan Milan is scheduled to make his debut at the Tour de France. It is fair to say that due to his sheer size, Milan produces more power than any other elite-level sprinter. As he demonstrated at the recent Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana, where he won a stage, the Italian is also extremely impressive in uphill sprints.
Consequently, the Italian will be the favourite for the opening stage, which finishes with an uphill drag. Milan will be hoping that 2025 is the year where he can establish himself as the outright top-dog in the sprinting world, and the UAE Tour would be a great place to start turning that to fruition.
Tim Merlier 🇧🇪 - Soudal Quick-Step
UAE Tour Stage Wins: 5
2025 Results: 2x stage win | AlUla Tour
The European champion continues to impress year-on-year, and I think that he has a strong case to suggest that he is currently the most prolific when all of the top sprinters come head to head. 2024 was remarkable for the Belgian who scored 16 wins, the most in a single season in his career so far. If delivered into a strong position in the closing metres, sometimes it feels like Merlier can’t lose, such is his excellency. The only issue the Belgian sometimes has is that he can get caught out, meaning he isn’t even in a position to sprint. An example of this was on the final stage of the AlUla Tour, where he finished 13th.
Already establishing himself in the Middle East in 2025 with two wins at the AlUla Tour, Merlier will be full of confidence heading into the UAE Tour. It’s a race he’s had great success in before with two stages, and he’ll have the feeling that he could win more this time around.
Jasper Philipsen 🇧🇪 - Alpecin-Deceuninck
UAE Tour Stage Wins: 2
Over the last two seasons, Jasper Philipsen has a strong case to suggest he has the best palmares out there compared to his fellow sprinters. 7x Tour de France stages and Milano-Sanremo stand out as some of the major successes of the Belgian, with Mathieu van der Poel being a key teammate to many of these victories.
Unlike the other featured riders, Philipsen has yet to begin his 2025 season, so it remains to be seen what his shape is like heading into the UAE Tour. If he is fit and firing, the aim will be no less to win a stage/s. Anything less will be disappointment for the Alpecin-Deceuninck star.
Olav Kooij 🇳🇱 - Team Visma | Lease a Bike
UAE Tour Stage Wins: 1
2025 Results: 2x stage win | Tour of Oman
Despite the Dutchman probably not being held in as high regard as the other three featured riders by the mainstream just yet, Olav Kooij is a force to be reckoned with. At only 23 years of age, the Visma | Lease a Bike rider already has 38 professional victories to his name, including a stage of the Giro d’Italia last year. That victory, as well as stage 5 of last year’s UAE Tour, among others, has proven that Kooij has what it takes to beat the best.
This year, he will be wanting to make that final step-up to be considered as the best of the best, but that will be difficult as he is heading to the Giro d’Italia in May, rather than the Tour de France. Therefore the UAE Tour is a big opportunity for Kooij to make his mark this season, and add to that stage win from last year.
Any of the following riders are capable of winning a stage if they have the perfect sprint and things fall into place. At the very least, these riders will be in the top 10 and pushing around the top five and the podium.
Dylan Groenewegen - Team Jayco AlUla
Arvid De Kleijn - Tudor Pro Cycling
Phil Bauhaus - Bahrain - Victorious
Sam Welsford - Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe
Fernando Gaviria - Movistar Team
Gerben Thijssen - Intermarché - Wanty
Tobias Lund Andresen - Team Picnic PostNL
These are the riders who we may see filling out the top 10 on sprint stages or riders who will be key parts of lead-outs for their team sprinter.
Fabio Jakobsen - Team Picnic PostNL
Danny Van Poppel - Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe
Max Walscheid - Team Jayco AlUla
Simone Consonni - Lidl-Trek
Maikel Zijlaard - Tudor Pro Cycling
Aaron Gate / Matteo Malucelli - XDS Astana Team
Oded Kogut - Israel - Premier Tech
Enrico Zanoncello / Filippo Fiorelli - VF Group - Bardiani CSF - Faizanè
Steffen De Schuyteneer / Lionel Taminiaux - Lotto
Stages
Stage 1 | Madinat Zayed Shams Solar Park - Liwa Palace (138km)
The opening stage of this year’s race could be quite interesting. In many recent editions, crosswinds have been a key influence on the outcome, and added to that is the fact that this year’s opening stage tackles two laps of the Moreeb Dune cycle path. The loop is 18.1km long, marked by steep climbs and descents with double-digit gradients. The stage finale also features a wide bend on a roundabout, and the home straight is uphill with an average gradient of around 5%.
This stage is much more than just a typical sprint in the UAE Tour. Don’t rule out Tadej Pogačar being in the mix for the opening stage.
However, the favourite will be Jonathan Milan who has shown his ability on finishes like this before. Philipsen and Merlier have also won races like this too.
Stage 2 (ITT) | Al Hudayriyat Island - Al Hudaryiyat Island (12.2km)
An individual time trial on stage 2 awaits the riders and is designed for the specialists. Only 12km in length, with 8 metres of vertical gain, it is safe to say that the course is pan-flat. The roads are also wide and have sweeping turns, meaning that riders should be able to maintain very high speeds. There are a few right-angle bends and two U-turns en route, with these being the opportunities for riders to put the power on the pedals on the exit points to try and make a difference on their opponents.
As with any stage in the UAE Tour, the only thing that could prevent super-high speeds is the wind, but it’s a lottery. It should establish some sort of gaps between the GC riders who are strong in this discipline and those who aren’t. You probably can’t win the GC here, but you can certainly lose it.
It’s the type of course and length that will give race leader Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek) a decent shot at holding on to the race leader’s jersey. The flat nature will suit the big Italian who will produce big watts on a course like this.
The favourite for the stage, however, is the European time-trial champion, Josh Tarling (INEOS Grenadiers). The 21-year-old is also an extremely powerful rider, and beyond Remco Evenepoel and Filippo Ganna, you’d be hard-pushed to find a better rider in this discipline. Perhaps the only downside from Tarling’s point of view is the short length of the time-trial because if it was over 25+ km, the British rider would have longer to build into his effort.
Stefan Bissegger (EF Education-EasyPost) is a former European champion in this discipline and is always in the mix. This will be the first time using the Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale set-up in a time trial for the Swiss rider, so it remains to be seen whether that will be a benefit or hindrance. He did win the time trial in the 2022 edition of the UAE Tour, so he knows what it takes.
Of course, Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates - XRG) must be mentioned as this is the first opportunity to lay down a marker in the general classification, and we know that the Slovenian will try to go for gold whenever the opportunity presents itself, as we even saw on stage 1.
Three of Pogačar’s teammates in Jay Vine, Mikkel Bjerg and Rune Herregodts (UAE Team Emirates - XRG) are all top time-trial riders in this discipline too. UAE Team Emirates could stack numbers in the top 10 tomorrow, potentially.
Some more very strong riders in this discipline are Maikel Zijlaard (Tudor Pro Cycling Team), Bruno Armirail (Groupama-FDJ), Daan Hoole (Lidl-Trek), Josef Černý (Soudal Quick-Step), Johan Price-Pejtersen (Alpecin-Deceuninck), Filip Maciejuk (Red Bull BORA hansgrohe), Aaron Gate (XDS-Astana Team), Rainer Kepplinger (Bahrain-Victorious) and Max Walscheid (Team Jayco AlUla). Expect most of these riders to be in and around the top 10, and maybe one of them could cause a minor upset and take the win. Due to the short length, it would be no surprise to see one of these riders pull off one of the rides of their career.
From a GC perspective, Finn Fisher-Black (Red Bull BORA hansgrohe), Iván Romeo (Movistar Team), and Pello Bilbao (Bahrain - Victorious) stand out as the strongest time-trial riders beyond Pogačar. Romeo is the current under 23 World time-trial champion and has been flying so far in 2025, so he will be one to watch in particular. The same can be said for Fisher-Black, who has looked in great shape in the early stages of the season and is bound to win a race sooner or later. Paul Seixas (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) is the junior time-trial world champion, but there’s still plenty of time and room for development for the youngest rider in the UCI WorldTour.
Stage 3 | Ras al Khaimah - Jebel Jais (179km)
The first of two unipuerto mountain stages at this year’s UAE Tour is stage three’s 179km route from Ras al Khaimah to Jebel Jais. A unipuerto stage has a single mountain at the finish, with no other significant climbing on the rest of the route. The first 140km of stage three is pan-flat once more, but the Jebel Jais climb will be key in the general classification battle. It is after the 140km mark where the road begins to undulate through the desert as the peloton approaches the foot of the Jebel Jais.
The climb is a long one, standing at 19km and has a mean average gradient of 5.6%, with the gradients increasing further up the climb. The climb features many hairpin bends on a very wide roadway, with the gradients featuring around 4-5% in the first half before gradually increasing to around 5-7% in the second half. The peak of around 9% comes 2km from the finish, and after 17km of climbing already in the legs, it’s going to sting.
In recent editions of the UAE Tour, we have seen that fortune favours the brave when it comes to the Jebel Jais. In its five inclusions in the race, we have seen three occasions where opportunistic attackers have claimed the gold with Jonas Vingegaard (2022) and Ben O’Connor (2024) both attacking near the flamme rouge and catching out the rest of the front group. Arguably more impressively, Einer Rubio attacked the front group in 2023 with over 10km of the climb remaining and held off a group of 26 riders to the line. On the other two occasions, Primož Roglič (2019) and Tadej Pogačar (2021) won from reduced group sprints.
Incidentally, it is important to note that time gaps have never been too big at the end of this stage, and there is often a group of around 20 riders or so heading into the final km still in contention. There’s no reason to suggest that this will change in the 2025 edition, with the probable exception of Tadej Pogačar riding away from the peloton. In terms of the battle for the podium, this stage is one where the main objective will be to stay in contention, and the major battle will likely come on stage seven atop the Jebel Hafeet.
Stage 4 | Fujairah Qidfa Beach - Umm al Quwain (181km)
If opening day turns out to be too difficult for some of the purer sprinters, that means we will have to wait until stage 4 to see the first pure bunch sprint of the race, in Umm al Quwain.
It is quite a surprise to see that the first definite flat finish of this year’s race is on stage 4, but the sprinters will have this stage marked in their calendars nonetheless. It marks the start of what should be three consecutive sprint stages, which feels about right for the UAE Tour. Compared to the following two days, stage 4 does have some climbing on route, with a long rise to Masafi, in the first half of the stage, where there is an intermediate sprint point. In total, the riders will tackle 976 metres of vertical gain, but ultimately, this will be irrelevant to the outcome of the stage.
The final km is on a wide avenue, meaning that the sprint trains should have plenty of space to do their work. As the official race website suggests, wind and occasional sand might be determining factors. However, this statement could be regurgitated for almost every other stage too.
Stage 5 | American University Dubai - Hamdan Bin Mohammed Smart University (160km)
Another sprint stage, taking place in Dubai, will see the riders pass key landmarks such as the Al Quadra Cycletrack, the Meydan Racecourse and the Dubai Safari Park. There are two intermediate sprint points at the Al Quadra Cycletrack and the Dubai Safari Park, respectively. Overall, there are only 344 metres of vertical gains in 160km from the American University Dubai to Hamdan Bin Mohammed Smart University, illustrating the flat nature of the stage. The finale is on a wide avenue, with a 700m straight.
Stage 6 | Abu Dhabi Cycling Club - Abu Dhabi Breakwater (167km)
Stage 6 holds the title for the flattest stage of this year’s race, with a measly 177 metres of vertical gain in 167km from Abu Dhabi Cycling Club to Abu Dhabi Breakwater. The Abu Dhabi stage will see the race pass the Yas Marina Circuit, well known to Formula 1 fans, as it hosts the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. Here lies an intermediate sprint point for the riders who are interested in the classification around 70km into the stage. The other intermediate sprint point comes at Qasr Al Hosn, which is the oldest stone building in the city of Abu Dhabi. This point comes with around 25km left of the stage, and will be the final point of interest, before all focus turns to the finish line at Abu Dhabi Breakwater.
The final 5km are on a wide open road with large half-curves winding towards the finish line. As previously mentioned, the stage is destined to end in a sprint finish.
Stage 7 | Al Ain Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium - Jebel Hafeet (176km)
The final stage of the 2025 UAE Tour will be pivotal for the general classification, as the race winner will be crowned victorious on the Jebel Hafeet.
The omnipotent Tadej Pogačar will likely have already secured a big lead in the GC and be set to take another stage win atop the Jebel Hafeet. However, we could see a great battle for the podium, and if Pogačar hasn't been firing up to this point, there could even be some jeopardy for the title.
Like stage 3, it’s another unipuerto stage, with the route being entirely flat up until the Jebel Hafeet climb. It’s nearly half the length of the Jebel Jais, standing at 10.9km, however, it is steeper, with an average gradient of 6.7%. This doesn’t tell the full story though, because of a short fast descent in the final km before the final ramp which skews the average gradient. The slopes mainly average around 8-9% for the most part.
The outcome of the stage tends to be much more selective compared to Jebel Jais, with the steepest gradients of around 11% having a significant impact on proceedings. The short descent in the final km will provide a brief moment of recovery before the road kicks back up towards the finish line.
We have seen “mano a Mano” sprints in the past, where leading into the final corner is often the key. Equally, we have also seen riders solo to victory and be able to enjoy the moment. With Pogačar in the race, it is likely to be the latter, especially as a three-time winner of this stage. However, on all three occasions, the Slovenian was unable to shake off then rival, now teammate Adam Yates, meaning he had to use his sprint to be victorious. With Yates now being Pogačar’s teammate, and also not on the start list, it is hard to see how anyone will be able to live with the pace of the Slovenian, especially if he puts the hammer down early. Regardless of the Slovenian, the race for the podium should still be entertaining, and there should be plenty of riders who will be in the mix for it.
Thank you for reading and hopefully you enjoy this week’s racing in the UAE Tour. If you enjoyed, it would be greatly appreciated if you could like, share and comment below your opinions ahead of the race!
Many thanks
Joe
Hoping for some intrigue this week other than “sprinters sprint, Tadej climbs.” Movistar have looked spicy so far and would love to see them try to shake it up on the two climbs.